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I agree with you. 5 years would be my minimum.Somewhere between 5 and 10 years is my answer.
My old Synology NAS runs the newest DSM, but is still very responsive. Not so many packages though.Most devices are tossed or sitting in a closet long before capacitor aging or even succumbing to so called "tin whisker syndrome". https://nepp.nasa.gov/whisker/background/index.htm
But given enough time, they will fail. Especially spinning rust.
The Synology NAS products do run a long time but older ones become painfully slow when running newest supported DSM especially if you're using a lot of packages, docker, et al. But a simple SMB box in the closet they do seemingly, in fact, run forever. The power brick usually is the first thing to go.